Defining success for every first-year NFL coach: Why pressure is already on for Jesse Minter, Joe Brady
Nearly one-third of the NFL will be under new leadership when the 2026 season kicks off. There are 10 fresh faces in the coaching ranks after the most active hiring cycle in four years, and what's more, that volume of coaching changes matched the most in league history.
These newcomers inherited a variety of situations when they stepped onto the job earlier this year. Some, like Jesse Minter and Joe Brady, took over teams whose previous coaches led them to the postseason more often than not.
Others will be the face of rebuilding projects whose accomplishments will be defined more by their player development than their Year 1 win total. For that latter group, while their bosses may never admit it publicly, they will be content with watching the losses pile up so long as there is reason to be excited about the future.
Success looks different for most of these first-year leaders, so here is what would constitute a satisfactory debut campaign for each of them.
Goal: Approach .500 with improvement on both sides of the ball
While the first year of the Cam Ward era left a lot to be desired in terms of wins and losses, there were enough flashes from the then-rookie quarterback to instill excitement in what Robert Saleh can do in Year 1 with the Tennessee Titans. He inherited a roster with a solid core of young offensive skill-position players so the first priority is to help them take the next step and, in turn, aid Ward in making a sophomore leap.
Saleh already put in a great deal of work on the defensive side of the ball with a number of head-turning acquisitions, including the free agent signing of defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers. He is one of many newcomers who has experience in Saleh's system.
If those personnel moves pull this defense out of the NFL basement, and if the offense builds on the momentum Ward experienced as a rookie, this team can move one step closer to the playoffs.
Goal: Establish an exciting offensive scheme around Jeremiyah Love and Marvin Harrison Jr.
Playing in a gauntlet of a division in the NFC West and doing so with one of the least inspiring rosters in the NFL sets the stage for what could be the Arizona Cardinals' worst season in modern franchise history. Wins will be incredibly hard to come by. The positive spin on that reality is that the front office will have its choice of numerous elite quarterback prospects in the 2027 draft.
With a rookie quarterback all but certainly coming in next year, Mike LaFleur needs to build a system in which he can thrive. Jacoby Brissett is his placeholder, so around him, LaFleur must help Harrison Jr. finally deliver on expectations and construct a rushing identity around heralded first-round pick Love. Those two and tight end Trey McBride give the incoming quarterback weapons aplenty; LaFleur just has to prove he can coach them.
There is plenty of reason to believe LaFleur can get that job done considering he carries seven combined years of experience working under Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator and passing game coordinator, respectively.
Goal: Turn Malik Willis into a franchise cornerstone
The Miami Dolphins invested in a low-risk, high-reward gamble on Willis in free agency. The odds of him developing into a franchise quarterback are still modest, especially since the front office gutted the roster around him and left him without any established receivers. However, by making him the sixth-lowest-paid starter among veterans and investing no guaranteed money beyond 2027, the Dolphins gave themselves an off-ramp in case it does not work out.
Their win total should be low enough to position them to take a top quarterback prospect in the draft, but what if Jeff Hafley and his staff get enough out of Willis to reduce that need? That is a legitimately possible outcome, and it helps that Hafley holds two years of experience with his quarterback -- albeit having coached on the opposite side of the ball during his run as the Green Bay Packers' defensive coordinator.
Putting Willis in position to thrive would turn a projected early pick into even more valuable capital that can be used to expedite the rebuild, either with the selection of a premier prospect at a different position or as a trade chip.
Goal: Develop the youngsters and improve the offense
Nobody aced the offseason quite like the Cleveland Browns. Yes, they parted ways with Myles Garrett, but the amount of meaningful young building blocks they acquired both through that trade and another excellent draft sets them up for long-term success. The only missing piece, as per usual with the Browns, is the quarterback.
This front office has tasked countless coaches with attempting to win without a bona fide standout at the most important position, and perhaps Todd Monken will become the next casualty of that trend. Very few of his predecessors have had this many other intriguing pieces to work with, though. All he can do is make the most of Jared Verse, Carson Schwesinger, Spencer Fano, KC Concepcion and all the other early-career weapons. Adding a capable quarterback to that group is largely out of his hands and entirely off the table for his debut season.
The defense is already tremendous, so it is up to Monken to get the offense up to snuff. He owns quite the track record of doing just that. If he can do it again, the onus will be on upper management to give him the signal-caller help he deserves next offseason.
Goal: Get enough out of the quarterbacks to compete for a division title
Give Kevin Stefanski a decent quarterback and his offense will click. Just look at his time with the Minnesota Vikings and the early years in Cleveland when he won two Coach of the Year awards. Does he have that kind of piece on his first Atlanta Falcons roster, though? The jury is out on that one. If Tua Tagovailoa rekindles his career or a healthy Michael Penix Jr. finally settles in, this could be another one of Stefanski's success stories.
Even without reliable quarterback play, the division is within reach. Atlanta finished in a three-team tie atop the NFC South standings last year even with all its issues. While the ceiling is limited in 2026, that result offers the Falcons a high floor.
The offense still presents an elite collection of skill talent in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The defense is talented enough to be a middle-of-the-road unit. If Stefanski reaffirms himself as a value-adding coach, the playoffs are attainable.
Goal: Establish an offensive identity and be competitive, even if losses pile up
The 2025 season was an abject failure for a Las Vegas Raiders team that aspired to use stars like Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers and a big-name rookie in Ashton Jeanty to move closer to the playoffs. Klint Kubiak now faces the same task.
It would be acceptable for the first-time head coach to deliver only a modest improvement in the win total so long as he eliminates some of the uncompetitive showings that plagued this squad a year ago. What will quickly become non-negotiable, however, is the need to orchestrate a more lively offense. The Raiders picked Kubiak for a reason. He is a proven offensive coach with storied bloodlines. That has to manifest on the field early in his tenure.
Kubiak's decision to ease No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza into the starting lineup might pay dividends. In order to ensure a bright future under center, though, he needs to successfully establish an offensive identity while Kirk Cousins runs the system. If everything is on track when Mendoza eventually steps on the field, his transition to the NFL will be all the smoother.
Goal: Improve the defense and get back into the playoffs
The Baltimore Ravens missed the playoffs last year for just the second time in the Lamar Jackson era. Getting back to the postseason requires a resurgence for a defensive unit that could long be counted on to stand among the NFL's best. Jesse Minter, of all people, ought to be capable of delivering that rebound.
Kyle Hamilton's stardom and the addition of Trey Hendrickson provide Minter with a stellar talent baseline. His consistently prolific schemes could be the piece that completes the puzzle. Add the star power of Jackson and Derrick Henry to that equation, and there is hardly an excuse to fall short of the playoffs.
More than anything, Minter cannot afford to waste the prime of Jackson's career. The Ravens made their coaching change to freshen up an operation that had become stale with the hope that it is the spark needed to get this roster over the hump. The clock is ticking.
Year after year of falling short in the playoffs finally caught up to Sean McDermott. Whether it was his fault or that of those in charge of roster construction is debatable. Joe Brady can do the front office a solid and take the Buffalo Bills to the Super Bowl. That is clearly the expectation internally; otherwise, why make a change? He does not need to reach the promised land in his first year on the job, but he must at least come close for the decision to be anything less than a net negative.
Hiring from within means the offense will remain elite, and the addition of DJ Moore might make it even more potent now that Josh Allen has a clear No. 1 option. The offseason moves on defense need to pay off in order for this team to level up, though.
So long as Brady gives the organization and its fans a reason to believe the Super Bowl is attainable in Year 2 and beyond, everyone will be at peace with this leadership swap. Making the playoffs is the baseline, and winning a game or two would prevent the appearance of regression.
The John Harbaugh hire is a statement that the New York Giants are ready to win. Bringing in one of the most highly regarded coaches of the century immediately raises expectations, and with the burgeoning talent he inherited, it does not take too much imagination to picture this working out.
While the Giants only accumulated four wins last year, they were competitive in many of their losses to good teams. They fell to the Broncos, Bears, Packers and Vikings each by one score. Harbaugh is a strong enough coach to flip some of those results. Say the coaching upgrade alone produces a couple additional wins. A seemingly improved roster is certainly worth another victory or two. All of the sudden, the total package might be a team hovering around the .500 mark.
While it remains unclear when Malik Nabers will return to game action, he and Cam Skattebo getting back to full strength will round out a young core with Jaxson Dart that not only offers a bright future, but also makes New York a trendy pick to flirt with the wild card in 2026.
Eight wins was the standard under Mike Tomlin. In his 19 years at the helm, none of his teams finished below that mark. A high floor is only as exciting as its ceiling, though, and the Pittsburgh Steelers decided his model had run its course. Their roster moves suggest they are still opposed to embracing a rebuild, so Mike McCarthy needs to at least keep up his predecessor's pace in order for his tenure to be satisfactory.
During Tomlin's run, the Steelers showed patience during the mediocre years because they knew the occasional pop would come. Even though McCarthy is deeply familiar with Aaron Rodgers and has both a couple of standout receivers and a trio of prolific pass rushers at his disposal, envisioning 2026 as one of those high-outcome years places a lot of trust in a 42-year-old quarterback.
So long as the pieces around the quarterback perform well enough to build excitement for the post-Rodgers era, Pittsburgh will likely be content with eight, nine or 10 wins.