Wimbledon picks: USA's Taylor Fritz has a few edges in Wednesday quarterfinals vs. No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev
The last American man standing at Wimbledon is No. 6 seed Taylor Fritz, and he has dropped just a set in his four matches thus far eyeing a first Grand Slam title. And he has a few advantages Wednesday at All England Club for his quarterfinal against No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev of Germany. Once again, times are a bit in flux, but I am seeing 9:30 a.m. ET currently.
Not only has Fritz not a won a Slam yet, the only final he reached was against current No. 1 Jannik Sinner at the 2024 U.S. Open, and the Italian breezed to a straight-sets victory. The 28-year-old Fritz, who hasn't yet won a 2026 singles title, got here with a 7-6 (7-1), 6-4, 6-4 fourth-round win over No. 10 seed Alexander Bublik of Kazakhstan on Monday.
The big hitter had 23 aces and won 90% of his first-serve points to advance after only one hour and 41 minutes. Spending that little time on court can only help Fritz on Wednesday. Bublik, who had played a four-hour marathon against Frances Tiafoe in the previous round, looked fairly worn down as Monday's match progressed.
"When I got my opportunities to break, I took them, and when he got in some service games, had some looks in some scary moments," Fritz said. "I played really well to get myself out of those situations. It's a big thing in a Grand Slam to get through the matches without killing yourself on the court. I had a tough one in the last round and it feels good to have a smooth one."
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It's the fourth time in the past five years, and third in a row, that Fritz has reached the last eight at Wimbledon – joining Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick as the only American men with three straight quarters in London -- but the only time he got further was when he lost in the 2025 semifinals to No. 2 seed Carlos Alcaraz in four sets.
Fritz has won 11 of his 13 grass-court matches this year and reached the finals in Halle and Stuttgart. His 47 grass-court match wins this decade are the most on the ATP Tour. Grass is clearly his ideal surface with a career-best .663 winning percentage and where he has claimed half of the 10 singles titles in his career.
It has been 26 years since an American man won a singles title at Wimbledon, and Fritz is +900 as of publication. Since 2001, only Roddick has reached the final at the All England Club, and he lost all three to Roger Federer.
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Fritz will next play reigning French Open champion Zverev, who is at a rest disadvantage. That's because his fourth-round match against No. 13 Jiri Lehecka was not able to be finished Monday night before the local 11 p.m. curfew. It was halted with Zverev in control at 6-4, 7-5, 3-3; Lehecka would then win that third set Tuesday, 6-3, before Zverev finished in a fourth-set tiebreaker.
In that fourth set, the 29-year-old won 87% of points (27 of 31) behind his first serve -- there are going to be a lot of aces in this one but also a few double faults on each side. Zverev has become the first German man to reach at least the quarterfinals in each of the season's first three Grand Slam events since Boris Becker in 1991.
Zverev, who is +850 to win Wimbledon for the first time and had never previously been to the quarters, playing for a bit more than an hour Tuesday is certainly not ideal for him, but at least he didn't have to go to a fifth set. No question that Zverev has been the more accomplished player career than Fritz, but it appears to be a bad matchup for German as he's 5-10 in the series and has lost the past seven.
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Their lone match this year was the Halle grass-court warmup and Fritz won in three sets in the semifinals. His winning streak vs. Zverev started with their last match at Wimbledon, a five-set win for the American in the fourth round. Zverev did win their other two matches at the All England Club, in 2018 and '21.
The winner faces either No. 9 Flavio Cobolli of Italy or British wild-card entry Arthur Fery in the semifinals. I'd expect that to be Cobolli, who is a -285 favorite. But at least whomever wins Wednesday avoids Sinner, the heavy -250 tournament favorite, until a potential final Sunday.
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Feeling good about myself tennis-wise, as both picks from Tuesday's Wimbledon women's quarterfinals hit from the story posted in this space Monday. I was not parlaying those because they were from separate matches, but this one has a fine price. I'm generally not a bettor on someone winning the first set of a match, but with the rest advantage you'd think Fritz has a major edge. Not to mention his recent dominance in the series.