2026 Open Championship odds, picks, date: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

The 2026 Open Championship tees off on Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England. Rory McIlroy (Masters), Aaron Rai (PGA Championship) and Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open) were the year's first three major winners, and they're all in the 2026 Open Championship field. Scottie Scheffler is the defending Open Championship winner, while Jordan Spieth won this event the last time it was at Royal Birkdale in 2017.

Scheffler is the +700 favorite (risk $100 to win $700) in the latest 2026 Open Championship odds, followed by McIlroy at +850. Englishmen Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick, both at +1500, are next on the PGA odds board for this event, with Jon Rahm (+2000) and Xander Schauffele (+2700) the only other golfers going off lower than +3000. Clark (+3300), Rai (+6000) and Spieth (+10000) are all longshots.

Before locking in any 2026 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the 2026 British Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

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SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites.

Now that the 2026 Open Championship field is set, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

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One major surprise the model is calling for at the Open Championship 2026: Fleetwood, who is tied for the third-lowest odds on the board at +1500, stumbles and doesn't finish in the top 5. He's a golfer to fade in Open Championship best bets. Fleetwood has a pair of top-5 finishes at the Open Championship, but also missed the cut in 2024 and finished outside the top 10 last year. He finished 27th the last time this event was at the Royal Birkdale. With no finishes better than T11 in any major this year, the model has found better values on the board. See who else to fade here.

Another surprise: Ludvig Aberg is a top-3 contender on the projected leaderboard despite never having won a major and having longer odds at +3300. This will be just his third British Open appearance, but he finished in the top 25 in this event last year. He's also been steady at the majors this year, which was highlighted by a T4 finish at the PGA Championship. He's one of the best drivers in both distance and accuracy on tour right now, and that quality alone makes him a top contender at Royal Birkdale. See who else to pick here.

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The model is also targeting several longshots, including one shocking pick who is going off around 50-1. You can only see the model's picks here.

Who will win the 2026 Open Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Open Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.

Get full 2026 Open Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.(odds via FanDuel and subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +700Rory McIlroy +850Tommy Fleetwood +1500Matt Fitzpatrick +1500Jon Rahm +2000Xander Schauffele +2700Collin Morikawa +3000Tyrrell Hatton +3000Viktor Hovland +3000Robert MacIntyre +3000Wyndham Clark +3300Chris Gotterup +3300Cameron Young +3300Ludvig Åberg +3300Justin Rose +3500Shane Lowry +4500Russell Henley +4500Si Woo Kim +4500Tom Kim +4500Sam Burns +4500Patrick Reed +5000Min Woo Lee +5500Patrick Cantlay +5500Justin Thomas +5500Aaron Rai +6000Alex Fitzpatrick +6000Bryson DeChambeau +6000Joaquin Niemann +6500JJ Spaun +6500Brooks Koepka +7000Ben Griffin +8000Rickie Fowler +10000Maverick McNealy +10000Brian Harman +10000Jordan Spieth +10000Adam Scott +10000Nicolai Højgaard +10000Harris English +10000Kurt Kitayama +10000Ryan Gerard +10000Keegan Bradley +10000Akshay Bhatia +10000Kristoffer Reitan +10000Alex Noren +10000Hideki Matsuyama +10000Victor Perez +10000Corey Conners +12500Eugenio Chacarra +12500Matt Wallace +12500Bud Cauley +15000Jordan Smith +15000Tom McKibbin +15000Cameron Smith +15000Ryan Fox +15000Keith Mitchell +15000Jason Day +15000J.T. Poston +15000David Puig +17500Sepp Straka +17500Jacob Bridgeman +17500Alex Smalley +17500Jake Knapp +17500Marco Penge +17500Max Homa +17500Michael Kim +17500Casey Jarvis +17500Nick Taylor +17500Johnny Keefer +17500Michael Thorbjornsen +17500Harry Hall +17500Jayden Schaper +22500Haotong Li +22500Max Greyserman +22500Angel Ayora +22500Gary Woodland +22500Ryo Hisatsune +22500Eric Cole +22500Aldrich Potgieter +22500Sungjae Im +25000Sami Valimaki +25000John Parry +25000Pierceson Coody +25000Sahith Theegala +25000Rasmus Højgaard +25000Sam Stevens +25000Andrew Novak +25000Lucas Herbert +25000Michael Brennan +25000Nico Echavarria +25000Matt Mccarty +25000Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +25000Stewart Cink +25000Daniel Hillier +35000Jackson Suber +35000Laurie Canter +35000Thomas Detry +35000Daniel Berger +35000Bernd Wiesberger +35000Hennie du Plessis +50000Billy Horschel +50000Scott Vincent +50000Keita Nakajima +50000Daniel Brown +50000Matthew Jordan +50000Andy Sullivan +50000Francesco Molinari +50000Kota Kaneko +75000Jesper Svensson +75000Shaun Norris +75000Padraig Harrington +75000Kazuma Kobori +75000Adrien Saddier +75000Francesco Laporta +75000Jose Luis Ballester +75000Joe Dean +75000Peter Uihlein +100000Alejandro De Castro Piera +100000Nevill Ruiter +100000Matthew Southgate +100000Baard Bjoernevik Skogen +100000Travis Smyth +100000Dan Bradbury +100000Naoyuki Kataoka +100000MJ Daffue +100000Marcus Plunkett +100000Cameron John +100000Tiger Christensen +100000Ryutaro Nagano +100000Jeong Woo Ham +100000Lev Grinberg +100000Martin Couvra +100000Jack Buchanan +100000Joakim Lagergren +100000Frederic Lacroix +100000Stuart Grehan +100000Matthew Baldwin +100000Kazuki Higa +100000Sam Bairstow +100000Darren Clarke +100000Fifa Laopakdee +100000David Duval +100000Mason Howell +100000Ren Yonezawa +100000Jiho Yang +100000James Nicholas +100000Michael Hollick +100000David Howard +100000Mateo Pulcini +100000Henrik Stenson +100000Tim Wiedemeyer +100000Jack McDonald +100000Antoine Rozner +100000Caleb Surratt +100000Alistair Docherty +100000Austen Truslow +100000Tom Sloman +100000