2026 Open Championship odds, picks: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy predictions by model that nailed 17 majors

Americans have won each of the last three Open Championships, with Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Brian Harman prevailing. Not since 2003-06 have U.S.-born golfers won this major four straight times, a drought that many will try to end at The Open 2026. In addition to the aforementioned, the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Young and Wyndham Clark are contenders to claim the 2026 Open Championship. Meanwhile, Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose and Aaron Rai are among the Brits looking to triumph at the British Open 2026 when play begins on Thursday, July 16 at 1:35 a.m. ET.

Scheffler is the +750 favorite (risk $100 to win $750) in Open Championship 2026 odds to repeat. McIlroy (+950), Fleetwood (+1500), Fitzpatrick (+1500), Jon Rahm (+2000), Schauffele (+2500) and Robert MacIntyre (+2700) are the Open Championship contenders with odds lower than +3000. Before locking in any 2026 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the 2026 Open Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

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SportsLine's proprietary golf betting model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulates every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.

Now that the 2026 British Open field is locked in, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

One pick from the model for The Open 2026: Wyndham Clark (+3500), the latest major champion after winning the U.S. Open for the second time, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top 20. While Clark has seemingly figured out the courses utilized for the U.S. Open, the same can't be said for all other majors. He has 13 combined starts at the other three majors and just one top 20 finish. He has nearly as many missed cuts (six) as made cuts (seven) across those 13.

Royal Birkdale is one of the 10 shortest courses in use during the 2026 PGA Tour schedule, so driving distance isn't much of a factor. However, the course has over 100 bunkers, so precision is paramount. Clark is just 83rd in driving accuracy percentage and only 65th in greens in regulation percentage. One shouldn't expect another run up the leaderboard for Clark at this major as he's one to fade with Open Championship bets.

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The model has also examined McIlroy's (+950) chances of becoming a two-time Open champion, after winning the event 12 years ago in 2014. He remains the last Brit to win the British Open and aims to become the 12th golfer with seven major championships. McIlroy has been all over the leaderboard at recent editions of this major, with three top 10s and three finishes 46th or worse over his last six Open starts. He does have promising course history at Royal Birkdale, placing fourth when the course hosted the 2017 Open Championship. If he can utilize momentum from that showing and make his way to the top of the leaderboard, then McIlroy's seventh major title would tie him with Harry Vardon for the most by any British golfer.

The model has also locked in its projection for Scheffler (+750) who, with a victory at Royal Birkdale, would become the first back-to-back Open champion since Tiger Woods in 2005-06. Scheffler has never had a bad performance at this major, notching top 25s in all five of his Open starts. While his top 5 and top 10 finishes are on pace with what he did the last two years, the victories have not kept up. He won his first tournament of 2026 but has come up short in his ensuing 13 events.

The difference this year could be Scheffler's opening round struggles as he led the tour in Round 1 scoring each of the last three seasons. However, he ranks 34th this year and is often digging himself into a hole that he hasn't been able to quite climb out of. Even with that, his metrics are unparalleled on the PGA Tour as Scheffler leads it in strokes gained: total, scoring average and birdie average. See the full Open Championship projections from the model here.

The model is also targeting several longshots, including one who is going off around 35-1. You can only see the model's picks here.

Who will win the 2026 British Open, which longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the 2026 Open Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025, and five straight Masters.

Get full 2026 Open Championship picks, best bets and predictions here. Odds via FanDuel (subject to change)

Scottie Scheffler +750Rory McIlroy +950Tommy Fleetwood +1500Matt Fitzpatrick +1500Jon Rahm +2000Xander Schauffele +2500Robert MacIntyre +2700Viktor Hovland +3000Chris Gotterup +3300Tyrrell Hatton +3300Ludvig Åberg +3300Justin Rose +3300Wyndham Clark +3500Collin Morikawa +3500Cameron Young +3500Si Woo Kim +4000Shane Lowry +4500Russell Henley +4500Justin Thomas +4500Tom Kim +4500Sam Burns +4500Patrick Reed +5000Min Woo Lee +5500Joaquin Niemann +5500Patrick Cantlay +5500Aaron Rai +6000Alex Fitzpatrick +6000JJ Spaun +6500Bryson DeChambeau +6500Brooks Koepka +7000Hideki Matsuyama +7000Harris English +8000Ben Griffin +8000Rickie Fowler +10000Maverick McNealy +10000Brian Harman +10000Jordan Spieth +10000Adam Scott +10000Nicolai Højgaard +10000Kurt Kitayama +10000Ryan Gerard +10000Keegan Bradley +10000Akshay Bhatia +10000Kristoffer Reitan +10000Alex Noren +10000Corey Conners +12500Tom McKibbin +12500Eugenio Chacarra +12500Matt Wallace +12500Cameron Smith +12500Victor Perez +12500Alex Smalley +15000Bud Cauley +15000Jordan Smith +15000Ryan Fox +15000J.T. Poston +15000Sepp Straka +17500Jacob Bridgeman +17500Jake Knapp +17500Sahith Theegala +17500Marco Penge +17500Max Homa +17500Andrew Novak +17500Thomas Detry +17500Michael Kim +17500Casey Jarvis +17500Nick Taylor +17500Harry Hall +17500Keith Mitchell +17500Jason Day +17500Gary Woodland +17500Eric Cole +17500Johnny Keefer +17500Michael Thorbjornsen +17500David Puig +22500Sungjae Im +22500John Parry +22500Pierceson Coody +22500Haotong Li +22500Rasmus Højgaard +22500Sam Stevens +22500Laurie Canter +22500Max Greyserman +22500Angel Ayora +22500Ryo Hisatsune +22500Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +22500Aldrich Potgieter +22500Sami Valimaki +25000Jayden Schaper +25000Lucas Herbert +25000Michael Brennan +25000Nico Echavarria +25000Matthew Jordan +25000Matt Mccarty +25000Stewart Cink +25000Hennie du Plessis +35000Daniel Hillier +35000Billy Horschel +35000Jackson Suber +35000Scott Vincent +35000Daniel Berger +35000Daniel Brown +35000Bernd Wiesberger +35000Jesper Svensson +50000Shaun Norris +50000Keita Nakajima +50000Andy Sullivan +50000Francesco Molinari +50000Padraig Harrington +75000Kazuma Kobori +75000Adrien Saddier +75000Francesco Laporta +75000Antoine Rozner +75000Jose Luis Ballester +75000Joe Dean +75000Peter Uihlein +100000Alejandro De Castro Piera +100000Kota Kaneko +100000Nevill Ruiter +100000Matthew Southgate +100000Baard Bjoernevik Skogen +100000Travis Smyth +100000Dan Bradbury +100000Naoyuki Kataoka +100000MJ Daffue +100000Marcus Plunkett +100000Cameron John +100000Tiger Christensen +100000Ryutaro Nagano +100000Jeong Woo Ham +100000Lev Grinberg +100000Martin Couvra +100000Jack Buchanan +100000Joakim Lagergren +100000Frederic Lacroix +100000Stuart Grehan +100000Matthew Baldwin +100000Kazuki Higa +100000Sam Bairstow +100000Darren Clarke +100000Fifa Laopakdee +100000David Duval +100000Mason Howell +100000Ren Yonezawa +100000Jiho Yang +100000James Nicholas +100000Michael Hollick +100000David Howard +100000Mateo Pulcini +100000Henrik Stenson +100000Tim Wiedemeyer +100000Jack McDonald +100000Caleb Surratt +100000Alistair Docherty +100000Austen Truslow +100000Tom Sloman +100000