Tesla beat on deliveries. Can it convince investors on spending?
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) reports second-quarter results after the bell Wednesday, and the numbers investors already have in hand tell a split story: a blowout on deliveries, a question mark on spending.
The electric vehicle maker posted 480,126 deliveries and 451,758 vehicles produced for the quarter, comfortably ahead of the roughly 406,600 Wall Street had penciled in, according to StreetAccount. That marks a 25% jump from a year ago, with Model 3 and Model Y accounting for 467,762 of the total.
The read-through: Tesla likely added about 95 basis points of global BEV market share, with its US share climbing 50 basis points to 46.1%.
The bigger debate on the call is likely to center on what Tesla is doing with its money, and its robots. The company set aside a $25 billion capital budget for 2026 to fund AI infrastructure and Optimus development, a spending pace analysts expect to push free cash flow to roughly negative $3.25 billion for the quarter.
Bank of America, which reiterated its Buy rating and $460 price target, argues the payoff is coming: robotaxi service now runs in five markets after a July 3 launch in Miami, the Texas fleet has swelled past 175 vehicles, and a June pricing study found Tesla undercutting Waymo, Uber and Lyft by 21% in San Francisco, albeit with wait times three to four times longer, a sign demand is outrunning supply.
Optimus remains the wildcard. Tesla is targeting initial Fremont production for late July or August, alongside a possible Gen 3 reveal, with Bank of America penciling in a slow ramp before humanoid shipments hit meaningful scale later in the decade.
Not everyone is convinced the money is moving fast enough. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, points out that Tesla has spent only about $2.5 billion of its $25 billion budget so far this year, despite being more than halfway through it.
"That raises questions about potential underspending on AI, autonomous driving and humanoid robots, the very ambitions that continue to underpin Tesla's valuation, given that its automotive business remains under pressure from Elon Musk's political controversies and intensifying competition from Chinese EV makers," she said.
That tension, strong deliveries against unproven bets, is what tonight's report will need to resolve.
Shares were flat Wednesday heading into the release.