Gold and silver prices volatile on MCX after the US Fed holds rates steady; focus shifts to PCE, GDP data | Stock Market News
Gold and silver prices were volatile on the MCX on Thursday (30 July) morning amid an uptick in the US dollar and 10-year bond yields after the US Federal Reserve maintained rates steady.
MCX gold August futures were almost flat at ₹1,41,856 per 10 grams, while MCX silver September futures were 0.51% down at ₹2,16,376 per kg around 9:05 AM.
The US dollar index hovered near the 101 mark, while the 10-year bond yields climbed by 6 basis points to 4.68 after the US Fed policy decision.
The US Fed kept the federal funds rate steady in a target range between 3.5% and 3.75% for the fifth consecutive policy on 29 July. However, three of the 12 policymakers dissented with a unified view of hiking rates by 25 basis points.
Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Market participants see a chance of a rate hike at the upcoming September meeting.
Investors are also awaiting June's U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data and the advance estimate of Q2 2026 GDP, due later today (30 July).
On the geopolitical front, the US military began fresh strikes on Iran on Wednesday (local time), marking its first attacks since 24 July. The strikes against Tehran were launched in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack targeting a US base in Jordan a day earlier.
The US-Iran conflict has driven crude oil prices higher again to levels near $90 per barrel, stoking inflation fears and boosting expectations of interest rate hikes.
Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but it tends to lose its appeal during elevated rate regimes.
As per news agency Reuters, CME Group's FedWatch tool shows markets now see a 63% chance of a rate hike in September, down from about 81% before the July policy decision.
"The US Fed policy statement carried a hawkish undertone, with the decision passing by a 9-3 vote, as three Fed officials backed an immediate 25-basis-point rate hike. Investors are now shifting their focus to the September meeting, as persistent inflation risks from higher oil prices, tariffs and AI-related demand continue to keep expectations of another rate hike alive," Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, noted.
According to Singh, as long as ₹1,40,000 holds, MCX gold may witness a pullback towards the ₹1,45,000 zone, which is likely to act as the upper band of the current trading range. However, Singh added that a decisive break below ₹1,40,000 could trigger fresh selling pressure and open the door for a decline towards ₹1,36,000.
Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research said MCX gold has support at ₹1,41,100 and ₹1,40,400 and resistance at ₹1,42,650 and ₹1,43,300, while silver has support at ₹2,15,500 and ₹2,13,300 and resistance at ₹2,20,000 and ₹2,23,100.
"We suggest long-term investors to accumulate gold and silver in every price drop, while traders can hold long positions in gold with a stop loss below ₹1,39,000 and in silver below ₹2,13,000 on a closing basis. We suggest booking profit in the long positions of gold around ₹1,43,300 and in silver around ₹2,23,000 in today's session," said Jain.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
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