Tarik Skubal trade deadline odds: Dodgers favored to land ace, but other contenders worth watching
The Detroit Tigers have a tough decision to make. After reaching the ALDS last year, they're now under .500 as the Monday, Aug. 3, MLB trade deadline approaches. The Tigers have gone from the betting favorites to win the AL Central to a team that appears likely to sell. As such, all eyes are on Detroit and what the team will do with ace Tarik Skubal, who is a pending free agent.
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Skubal, 29, is far and away the biggest name expected to be moved ahead of the Aug. 3 MLB trade deadline. He won the AL Cy Young in both 2024 and 2025, and while he missed some time due to elbow surgery this season, Skubal still owns a 2.79 ERA while racking up 3.1 bWAR in just 16 starts. He made what may very well be his final start in a Tigers uniform on Wednesday, giving up three earned runs over 6 2/3 innings while striking out six against Baltimore. Any contender -- especially a pitching-needy team -- would love to add Skubal for the next two months and into the postseason.
So where will Skubal end up? DraftKings Sportsbook, one of the best betting sites, has a market for Skubal's next team, so those interested in MLB betting can place wagers on which team they think Skubal will be pitching for once the Aug. 3 deadline passes.
The Dodgers are the clear favorites to land Skubal, and it makes all the sense in the world. The two-time reigning champs are as aggressive as any team in baseball when it comes to trades and free agents, and they're looking for a rare three-peat this year. The Dodgers have one of the best -- if not the best -- farm systems in the game, so they have the ability to put together the best package for Skubal. The Dodgers also need starting pitching help with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow on the IL, Shohei Ohtani not pitching at the moment and Eric Lauer and Roki Sasaki occupying key rotation spots. Plus, the Dodgers are expected to be among the top suitors for Skubal in free agency this winter, so why not add him and use a World Series ring as part of your sales pitch for a potential long-term deal? The Dodgers are the World Series favorites when it comes to futures betting, and a swing for Skubal would make the team that much more dangerous.
The Brewers appear to be the Dodgers' top competition in the National League after falling to L.A. in the NLCS last year, and it'd be awfully fun to see Skubal in a Brewers uniform. Imagine Skubal and NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski pitching back-to-back in a playoff series. If the Brewers are going to overtake the Dodgers as the NL kings, a big swing for Skubal will certainly be in the cards, and Milwaukee has the chips to get a deal done.
Two other NL contenders that could use a pitching upgrade are the Cubs and Braves. The Braves at least have ace Chris Sale leading the way, while the Cubs are probably the contender that needs the most starting pitching help. Skubal would be a major get for either of these teams, turning them into maybe the No. 2 team in the NL behind L.A.
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If Skubal stays in the American League for a team that isn't the Tigers, DraftKings oddsmakers believe he'd land in the AL East with either the Rays or Yankees. The Rays have a great rotation, headlined by the trio of Nick Martinez, Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen, but Skubal is a true front-line ace who is simply in a different stratosphere than any of those three. Plus, McClanahan missed the last two seasons, so his effectiveness down the stretch and into the postseason is worth keeping a close eye on. The Yankees have a great rotation with Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler leading the charge alongside Gerrit Cole and Max Fried and lead MLB in team ERA. Adding Skubal to the mix would make New York the clear team to beat in the American League, especially with how wide-open the AL is this year. The Mariners are listed here at +2500, but starting pitching isn't what the team needs right now. In fact, reports are that Seattle will trade one of its six starters -- likely Emerson Hancock or Luis Castillo -- to add bullpen and lineup help.
A Phillies move for Skubal would be massive and give Philly a dangerous trio of Skubal, Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez in a shortened postseason series, but the team doesn't appear to have the same caliber of trade chips that other teams in the Skubal sweepstakes do.
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The wild card here is Skubal simply staying in Detroit. The Tigers don't have to deal their prized ace, and if they don't get a trade package to their liking, they could just hold onto him. Detroit does have plenty of incentive to move Skubal considering he's a pending free agent who doesn't appear likely to re-sign with Detroit this offseason, and he'd bring back a massive return. But the Tigers are technically in the AL wild-card race at 4.5 games back entering Thursday, and the American League is wide-open right now. Keeping Skubal and trying to get hot late -- as we saw from the Tigers two years ago -- isn't the craziest proposition, but it appears the Tigers are going to look more toward the future, so getting a massive return for a guy who almost certainly won't be in a Detroit uniform in 2027 makes a ton of sense.