SpaceX Set for First Quarterly Results Since IPO as Investors Assess Valuation
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is due to publish its quarterly results after the close of trading on Tuesday, marking the company's first earnings report since its highly anticipated stock market debut.
The release is expected to provide investors with a clearer picture of whether the company's financial performance supports the ambitious growth expectations that accompanied its listing, particularly as it continues to invest heavily in artificial intelligence and space technologies.
Despite strong enthusiasm surrounding its initial public offering, SpaceX shares have experienced significant volatility.
The stock debuted at its IPO price of $135 before climbing to almost $200, only to retreat steadily in the following weeks. Shares later touched a 52-week low of $112.55, representing a decline of around 17% from the IPO price and more than 44% below their post-listing peak.
The stock closed the first trading session of August at $114.53, gaining 5.68% alongside a broader rally that lifted the Nasdaq 100 by 1.78%. SpaceX joined the technology-focused index in early July.
Investor attention is also turning to the upcoming expiration of the company's first lock-up restrictions.
Beginning two days after the earnings release, early investors will be allowed to sell shares acquired before the IPO, potentially introducing billions of dollars' worth of stock into the market over the coming months.
The additional supply could increase volatility and place further pressure on the share price.
The earnings report is expected to provide fresh insight into the company's substantial investment programme in artificial intelligence, which Chief Executive Elon Musk has described as the company's primary long-term growth engine.
Markets will be looking for evidence that these investments can eventually generate sufficient returns to justify current spending levels.
Investors are also expected to focus on management's conference call, where Musk could provide further details on previously discussed initiatives, including plans to develop space-based data centres designed to reduce energy consumption and environmental impact.
According to Morningstar, spending on AI infrastructure is expected to more than double between 2024 and 2025 before potentially doubling again during 2026.
The company's AI business generated revenue of $3.2 billion in 2025 and $818 million during the first quarter of 2026. However, profitability remains elusive, raising concerns that costs may continue to outpace earnings for several years.
Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens remains one of the few analysts maintaining a cautious valuation stance.
While FactSet data shows the average analyst price target stands at $236.72 per share, Owens estimates the company's fair value at just $63.
"We believe the shares are overvalued given the fundamentals and uncertainty surrounding the return on investment in the artificial intelligence sector," he said.
Owens also expressed doubts that the AI segment will become profitable in the near future, despite expected revenue from infrastructure agreements with companies including Anthropic, Google and potentially Reflection.
"I don't expect the sector to become profitable in the short term," he said.
Analysts will also closely examine the performance of Starlink, which remains the company's only consistently profitable business.
According to Owens, Starlink currently generates the profits needed to help finance SpaceX's expansion into artificial intelligence.
"Starlink is currently the company's profit engine and is able to partially finance its expansion plans in the AI sector," Owens said.
Space launch operations will also remain an important part of the investment story.
Owens believes that reusable rockets, more frequent launches and the future deployment of space-based data centres could strengthen SpaceX's competitive advantage.
"Starship, designed to launch up to 10 times more payload than a typical Falcon 9 launch, will strengthen SpaceX's advantage over the rest of the industry in terms of launch cadence and capacity. Starship," Owens concludes.
Assessing SpaceX's financial performance may prove challenging because the company combines multiple businesses—including satellite communications, launch services and artificial intelligence—without any directly comparable listed competitor.
Financial comparisons are also complicated because the reported results will not include xAI, which became part of the broader group only in February.
For now, investors have little choice but to compare the upcoming results with the company's previous financial performance.
SpaceX generated revenue of $18.7 billion during 2025 but recorded a loss of nearly $5 billion. During the first quarter of 2026, the company reported a loss of $4.3 billion on revenue of $4.7 billion while carrying approximately $30 billion of debt.