After Palantir’s Blowout Earnings, Here’s Where The Stock Could Head Next
PLTR's Q2 revenue surged 93% year over year, yet the stock sits 29% below YTD levels, where our $157 price target implies a BUY.
Palantir grows 7x faster than CRM and nearly 3x faster than SNOW while posting a 47% GAAP operating margin neither competitor achieves.
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Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) just delivered one of the most staggering software quarters I have ever covered, and the market's reaction has been oddly muted. Palantir posted $1.94 billion in Q2 2026 revenue, up 92.83% year over year, yet the stock trades down 29.31% year to date. That gap between fundamentals and price is exactly what our model is trying to price in.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Palantir is $157.22, implying 24.83% upside from the current $125.65 quote, with the recommendation set to buy.
Palantir sits 12% below its 52-week high of $207.52 and just above its 52-week low of $106.37. Shares are down 4.47% over the past week and off 18.55% over one year, even after climbing 2.1% on August 3.
Q2 EPS of $0.41 beat the $0.346 estimate by 46.43%, extending the streak to nine consecutive beats. U.S. commercial revenue jumped 149% to $764 million, and the Rule of 40 score reached 155%, an almost unheard-of figure at this scale.
Our bull case pegs Palantir at $201.63 within 12 months, a 60.08% return. The driver is simple: management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $8.150 to $8.158 billion, or 82% growth, with adjusted free cash flow between $4.5 and $4.7 billion. CEO Alex Karp told investors "demand for AI sovereignty has now been unleashed", and the numbers back him.
U.S. commercial remaining deal value hit $6.238 billion, up 124%, meaning growth is booked, not hoped for. If AIP adoption compounds, the analyst consensus target of $182.20 becomes a floor rather than a ceiling.
Our bear case lands at $138.77. Palantir trades at a trailing P/E of 138 and a forward P/E of 84, leaving zero margin for a stumble. Stock-based compensation ran $265 million in Q2, and insider activity shows net selling across 70 recent transactions.
Bulls would counter that SBC is the cost of retaining engineers building a category-defining platform, and that $1.22 billion in Q2 free cash flow more than absorbs it. Termination-for-convenience clauses in government contracts remain a structural risk worth respecting.
Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) is the closest AI-data-platform comparable. Snowflake posted Q1 FY27 revenue of $1.39 billion, up 33.5%, a fraction of Palantir's 93% pace, yet still runs GAAP operating losses. Palantir's 47% GAAP operating margin is the differentiator, and it makes our target look reasonable rather than aggressive.
Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) offers the value counterpoint. Salesforce trades at a P/E near 20 with 13.3% revenue growth. Palantir grows roughly 7x faster and carries net cash. The premium is earned, though it demands sustained execution.
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $157.22 with 90% confidence and a buy rating reflects a business firing at a Rule of 40 score of 155% while trading well below its 52-week high.
The bullish thesis strengthens if U.S. commercial bookings maintain triple-digit growth through Q3. It weakens if government contract cancellations accelerate or if operating margins compress below 40%. The setup favors the bull case.
These projections assume Palantir continues converting AIP demand into booked revenue. Meaningful upside or downside could result from federal AI budget shifts or a broader software multiple reset.
Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.