Dow loses more than 270 points as oil prices pressure stocks amid rising Iran tensions

The S&P 500 fell on Monday, while oil prices rose, as investors weighed tensions in the Middle East.

The broad market index fell 0.52% to end at 7,745.06, while the Nasdaq Composite moved 0.32% lower to 26,644.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 272.63 points, or 0.51%, to close at 53,459.78.

Eyes were focused on the conflict in the Middle East, with the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran expiring Monday as negotiations between the two sides have stalled. Iran has ruled out talks to extend the memorandum of understanding, state news agency Tasnim has reported.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters Monday that the country would shift to an offensive posture if diplomacy with the U.S. fails, while President Donald Trump told Fox News Monday that the U.S. would bomb Oman if it "gets in the way."

Oil prices were higher following the developments. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 2.6% to $84.50 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude futures were higher by 2.7% at $90.87 a barrel.

The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since June 2007 as oil prices advanced.

"We're back to watching the negotiations in real time, and I think a lot of people have just turned a blind eye to it," said Jason Stephens, Evertern Wealth founder. "We think that there's more bias to the downside in oil prices than there is the risk to the upside at this point in the game" due to the prospect of a deal being reached, especially as the midterm elections draw closer, he said.

"There's a lot of pressure on the administration right now to really focus heavily on this and get something done," Stephens added.

Micron Technology was a bright spot in the session, however, as shares gained 4%. Last week, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told The Wall Street Journal that the Trump administration is not in support of Apple buying memory chips from China. Bloomberg News also reported that Anthropic's second-quarter revenue was more than $11.5 billion — a massive jump from a year earlier.

The S&P 500 notched a fresh all-time high last week following a blockbuster earnings season that's buoyed investor sentiment. The stock market has continued to climb in the face of ongoing hostilities in the Middle East.

Investors are in for a week with fewer catalysts on the calendar, though the Federal Reserve posts its latest meeting minutes Wednesday. A slew of retail earnings are on tap as well, with Walmart results due out Thursday. Home Depot and Lowe's report Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

The three major averages closed Monday's session in negative territory.

The S&P 500 finished 0.52% lower at 7,745.06, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.32% to settle at 26,644.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 272.63 points, or 0.51%, and closed at 53,459.78.

JPMorgan is moving to the sidelines on Amcor, downgrading the stock to neutral from overweight on Monday.

The global packaging manufacturer, which merged with Berry Global in 2025, is looking to save $590 million over the next three years by cutting costs and finding efficiencies, analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas said. However, Amcor has faced some headwinds over the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict and faced higher working capital requirements in 2026.

"Its capital expenditure outlays are stepping up as the company invests for volume growth, and Amcor's absolute EBITDA growth is slowed by its divestiture agenda," he wrote in a note to clients. "It is a challenge to forecast the timing of these cash flow changes with precision. The absolute levels of free cash flow in the coming quarters are more uncertain."

Shares were down 1% in afternoon trading.

JP Morgan has raised Riot Platforms' target price to $22 for December 2027, implying a 15.7% upside from Friday's close.Â

The analysts maintain its overweight rating on the digital infrastructure company.Â

JP Morgan also highlighted the company's signing with Anthropic and how its handled AMD lease in its report.Â

"Riot continues to execute on its smaller AMD lease, delivering Phase 2 (20 MW of IT capacity) in May, bringing a total of 25 MW of capacity online for AMD. Phase 3 (10 MW) and Phase 4 (15 MW) remain on track and on budget for delivery in November 2026 and May 2027, respectively," JP Morgan wrote on Monday. Â

Expedia shares hit fresh all-time highs on Monday before pulling back in afternoon trading.

Shares of the travel booking platform touched a new record at $335 per share. However, shares slipped around 4% in afternoon trading.

Despite Monday's volatility, Expedia stock is still up almost 13% in 2026.

The major averages were lower in afternoon trading on Monday, heading for back-to-back negative sessions.

Still, the major averages are higher across the board so far in August. The Dow is on track for its fifth straight positive month, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are on pace for their first positive month in three.

Six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are higher month to date. Tech is leading with a gain of more than 7%, while communication services is lagging. That sector has fallen more than 1%.

Nike shares are trading at lows not seen since September 2014, as the sports apparel stock continues to falter under pressure. The stock is already down almost 39% this year, and was last lower by more than 4% during midday trading on Monday.

The apparel retailer has been on the decline, as it faces rising competition from brands such as On and Hoka, and weaker demand in key markets such as China.

Its turnaround plan under CEO Elliott Hill was also criticized as too slow by one JPMorgan analyst, who earlier this month downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral.

With the economy on solid footing but inflation still high, now would be a good time for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, former St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard said Monday.

"Why not do it now? You don't want to wait till the economy's suffering and then have to make an agonizing decision," the dean of the Purdue University business school said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." So it would be a good time, I think, for the committee to signal that they they want to get inflation down to 2% a little more rapidly than what markets are projecting now."

Traders have sharply pulled back their expectations for Fed tightening. Futures pricing Monday afternoon pointed to just a 32.6% probability of a cut at the Sept. 15-16 meeting, after just a few weeks ago assigning strong odds to a move, according to the CME Group's FedWatch.

Market pricing now points to a December hike. However, Bullard thinks the market might also take that as a sign of wavering commitment to the inflation target, and "that's really a problem for the" Federal Open Market Committee, which does not have a policy meeting scheduled in August.

U.S. refiners have surged to all-time highs, as the margin between crude oil and diesel prices soar due to constrained capacity in Russia and the Middle East.

Valero was trading at all-time highs dating back to its spinoff from PG&E in 1980. Marathon Petroleum was at its highest level since splitting from Marathon Oil in 2011. And Phillips 66 was at a record since it went public in 2013.

Valero and Marathon Petroleum shares have more than doubled in value this year while Phillips 66 is up about 85%.

They are benefiting from diesel margins of around $100 per barrel as Ukraine knocks Russian refineries offline and capacity in the Middle East is blocked in due to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Since Friday Boeing's shares have consistently fallen, with the company's stock down nearly 2% on Monday morning.Â

Shares fell after the U.S. Army announced it would temporarily ground the Apache helicopter flights on Aug. 14 after two soldiers were killed on board from a Apache helicopter crash in Salado, Texas.Â

"Army leaders directed a temporary stand-down of AH64 Apache training flight operations. The stand-down will remain in effect until we have a better understanding of the root cause of the accident. We currently have no additional information to share," the U.S. Army wrote in a statement.

York Space Systems has an appealing risk-reward setup, but it's path to delivering robust returns to its shareholders isn't clear yet, according to JPMorgan.

The investment bank downgraded the mini-satellite maker to neutral from overweight. It also lowered its price target on shares to $17 from $38, implying nearly 56% upside from Friday's close.

"York's initial value proposition was to be the low-cost [Low Earth Orbit] satellite provider and in our view, success in that role requires consistent high- volume production and being a share leader," analyst Seth Seifman said Sunday in a note to clients. "York may get there, and we believe mgmt is pushing hard, but the path isn't very clear right now, with the company likely facing tough competition in an [Indefinite Delivery, Indefinite Quantity] contract environment that limits visibility."

York has slumped more than 52% over the past three months, with its losses deepening following the firm's second-quarter earnings miss. The company recently blamed "the removal of the new business revenue in 2026 given the shift in government acquisition methodologies" for its weaker-than-expected financial results.

The S&P 500 began Monday's session little changed.

The broad market index traded around the flatline just after 9:30 a.m. ET, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 123 points, or 0.2%.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that the country may shift to an offensive policy rather than defensive one, if diplomacy efforts with the U.S. fail.

The official added the country will escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz — the critical passageway for oil that Iran controls — and the wider Middle East region.

U.S. oil prices moved higher slightly on the headline, and were hovering near $83 per barrel.

A 60-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire Monday, with no breakthrough or deal in sight.

Factory activity in the New York region hit a multi-year high during August, spurred by a jump in unfilled orders, the regional Federal Reserve reported Monday.

The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey posted a reading of 20.6, its best level in more than four years, up 5 points from July and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus for 12.

Though readings on new orders and shipments were softer than July, they both still showed expansion. Unfilled orders jumped to 15.5, up 10 points from a month ago, while the employment measure edged lower to 9.3. The prices paid index rose but the prices received measure decreased.

The index survey the percentage difference between managers reporting growth against contraction.

Anthropic saw its revenue in the second quarter jump at least 14-fold versus a year earlier, according to a Friday report from Bloomberg News.

The company's preliminary revenue was more than $11.5 billion for its latest completed quarter, an increase from $787 million in the year-ago period and $4.73 billion in the first quarter of 2026, per documents seen by the news outlet.

The second quarter also saw the company report positive adjusted operating income, the documents showed.

Chip stocks advanced in premarket trading on Monday on the heels of the report. Micron Technology gained 3%, while Broadcom rose around 1%. Nvidia was also trading in the green.

Check out the companies making the biggest moves premarket:

Oil producer Vista Energy jumped in premarket on Monday after it was revealed that billionaire Peter Thiel's hedge fund had acquired a stake in the Argentine company.

Treasury yields edged lower early Monday as traders await the latest FOMC minutes due later in the week.

The 10-year Treasury note yield — the main benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — was more than 2 basis points lower at 4.6743%.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which typically reacts in line with short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, dropped more than 1 basis point to 4.1542%.

The 30-year Treasury yield, which is typically sensitive to geopolitical events, was more than 2 basis points lower at 5.2445%.

Shares of Danish shipping firm Maersk were 4.3% higher in early European deals, hitting their highest level since Aug. 5, 2022.

The company reported above-consensus quarterly results last week and raised its profit guidance for the second time this year as it benefits from higher freight rates and the resilience of global trade demand amid geopolitical tensions.

Asia-Pacific markets ended mixed Thursday. Japan's Nikkei 225 added 0.74% to 69,220.25 while the Topix fell 0.31% at 4,184.11.

Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.46% to 9,073.2.

Mainland China's CSI 300 advanced 1.61% to 4,741.10, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was up 1.5% as of its final hour of trade.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index climbed 0.22% in early deals, though sectors were a mixed a bag.

Mining and technology stocks led gains, both up by more than 1%, while the food and beverage sector lost 0.9%.

The U.S. dollar was lower early Monday, with the Dollar Index down 0.18% at 2 a.m. ET near its lowest level in more than two months.

The greenback tumbled over the course of last week as a surprise fall in retail sales and softer-than-expected inflation prints cooled market bets on an upcoming Federal Reserve rate hike.

Pricing on Monday indicated a 30% probability of a rate rise at the Fed's September meeting, down from around 50% a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

The Japanese yen was trading at 159.08 against the dollar on Monday, having given back a significant portion of the gains triggered by last month's coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention.

Sree Kochugovindan, senior research economist at Aberdeen Investments, said the fundamental drivers for a stronger yen were still not in place, with rate differentials needing to narrow.

That puts the focus on the Bank of Japan, which Kochugovindan said needs to raise rates and signal a faster pace of policy normalization. She told CNBC in an email that the BOJ's September meeting would be an opportunity to surprise investors and bolster the yen.

If the BOJ holds rates in September, Kochugovindan expects hikes in October and December, taking the policy rate to 1.5%. "They need to then keep the door open to further hikes for the yen to gain traction," she said.

Kweichow Moutai shares dropped 4.5% Monday after the Chinese premium liquor maker released its semi-annual report Saturday.

First-half total revenue rose 1.3% from a year earlier to 92.3 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell 1.95% to 44.5 billion yuan.Â

Citi estimates that second-quarter revenue fell 5% from a year earlier to 37.6 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders declined 7% to 17.2 billion yuan.

The bank said in a note that it sees several positives for the Chinese company despite weak quarterly sales, attributing the decline to the company's transition from wholesale to direct-to-consumer sales rather than soft demand.

Citi also said some inventory supply was likely shifted from the second to the third quarter to capture the full benefit of a second round of average selling price hikes that took effect July 18.

It also expects Moutai to benefit from a recent rotation back into China's consumer sector, with global long-only investors cautiously returning to high-quality, large-cap consumer staples.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trade Monday as investors weighed ongoing geopolitical risks, with the U.S.-Iran conflict showing no signs of a diplomatic resolution.

Brent crude futures for October delivery rose 0.76% to $89.19 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for September delivery added 0.55% to $82.85 per barrel.

Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had yet to decide whether to resume talks with Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, called on Americans to tolerate slightly higher gasoline prices as the conflict continues.

Japan's economy expanded 1.1% in the second quarter on an annualized basis, missing expectations for 2% growth as softer domestic demand offset strong exports.

GDP had expanded at 2.1% rate in the previous quarter.

On a year-on-year basis, the country's economy grew 0.7%, up from 0.5% in the first quarter.

This is the first full quarter to include the impact of the Iran war, which has brought energy prices higher for business and households.

Exports were the main driver of growth, with shipments from the country beating expectations for all three months of the quarter. However, this was helped by the weak yen as opposed to simply a higher volume of shipments.

Earlier this month, the Bank of Japan released its economic activity outlook, and raised its GDP growth outlook marginally to 0.6% from 0.5% for its 2026 fiscal year ending March 2027.

Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed Monday.

Japan's Nikkei 225 added 0.4%, while the Topix declined 0.11% after Japan's economy expanded 1.1% in the second quarter on an annualized basis, missing expectations for 2% growth.

Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.39%, while South Korean markets were closed for a holiday.

Asia-Pacific markets were set for a mixed open Monday, with futures pointing to gains in Japan and Hong Kong while Australian shares were poised to fall.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Chicago futures contract was trading at 68,900 and its Osaka counterpart was last at 68,720 compared with the index's previous close of 68,713.8.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures last traded at 25,247, above the benchmark's close of 25,116.85.

Futures for Australia's S&P/ASX 200 last traded at 9,015 compared with the index's last close of 9,115.2.

South Korea markets are closed for a holiday.

Investors will be looking ahead to Japan's preliminary second-quarter GDP reading, as well as China's July industrial production and retail sales data.

Harvard Management Company on Friday disclosed in a securities filing that it has a $2.2 billion stake in SpaceX, meaning Elon Musk's rocket company is the largest holding for the manager of the university endowment. As of June 30, HMC held 12,935,100 shares of the aerospace company.

Nvidia is in talks to invest as much as $3 ⁠billion in SB Energy, a SoftBank subsidiary developing a massive ​planned Ohio data ​center project for ​OpenAI, The Information reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the discussions.

Stock futures opened little changed Sunday night.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were flat. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.